A plea for realism

Speech given in the Second Chamber of the Netherlands’ Estates-General, 

5 March 2025

During the previous debate on the Ukraine conflict, Forum for Democracy tabled a motion calling on the government to look to the future: after all, as the Netherlands, we want to keep good contacts and trade with both the United States and Russia and, whatever the outcome of the Ukraine conflict will be, we should not burn all ships behind us and do irreparable damage to the relationship with either of these countries.

To my surprise, this mild and constructive motion was not supported by any party in this chamber. 

This marks the situation we are in, Chairman. Whenever we talk about the Ukraine-Russia situation here, all contributions are steeped in moral judgements and condemnations, World War II comparisons, the so-called ‘absolute good’ versus the ‘absolute evil’ - a cartoon caricature that can obviously only be reinforced with half or whole falsehoods. 

Years of anti-Russia pro-Ukraine propaganda have fed that absurd black-and-white thinking. 

And then, in our debates in the Lower House, you then see a second component: the fantastic, far-reaching and heroic-sounding proposals and expressions of solidarity that lack all sense of reality and serve no Dutch interest whatsoever. 

What do we gain from this? Why should we do this? Why is this good for the Netherlands?

Let's be realistic. Look at reality without wishful thinking. Just, the facts. 

The war has long been lost, especially now that - as we predicted long ago - America is going to withdraw. Simply because US interests are not served by continuing this hopeless war.

Any suggestion that NATO could win this war is absurd. The idea that Europe could also do this on its own is the superlative of that.  Yet that is what European countries keep telling Zelensky. We stand with Ukraine. “Whatever it takes,” “for as long as it takes,” Foreign Minister Veldkamp even said. Whatever it takes? Is the foreign minister serious? No limits on support in terms of money and equipment? Dutch boys and girls being sent to Ukraine? Bizarre.

There is now also talk of whether or not to participate in imaginary peacekeeping forces. Let's be real. Without Russia's approval, all foreign troops in Ukraine are seen as hostile targets. That Russian approval is never going to happen. Forcing it anyway can only be done with a security guarantee from the United States. This is the preference of Zelensky and - it seems - of most countries in Europe. As Trump rightly pointed out in his interview with Zelensky, this is gambling with a nuclear third world war. And thus, as far as Americans are concerned, unthinkable.

Relations between the US and Russia are being normalised, there are discussions to restore air links and make mutual embassies fully operational again. And probably lift sanctions. Furthermore, arms and information supplies to Ukraine are paused, 

This thwarts all European plans and fantasies.

Forum for Democracy calls on the prime minister and the foreign and defence ministers to urge their counterparts to be calm and pragmatic in the upcoming talks, not to go along with wild plans about even more extensive support for Ukraine, against still trying to obtain US security guarantees for a peacekeeping force. And to speak out against the build-up of European mega defence funds, or the annexation of Russian assets. And: never agree to send Dutch soldiers to Ukraine.