A shift to the right in Austria and East Germany?

In Germany and Austria, the past few months have been characterized by an almost hysterical political mood: in a rare show of unity, parties across the political spectrum have formed a ‘firewall against the right’. The results of the state elections in three eastern German states and the parliamentary elections in Austria make it clear that the ‘horror scenario’ that was evoked has come true. A third of the electorate voted for the Right! Despite all the regional differences, there are a few common features that can be mentioned to comment on last week's political events with a pragmatic distance.

In Austria, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) won its first national election with a result of 28,9%. The two governing parties in turn lost dramatically: the conservative ÖVP with Chancellor Karl Nehammer came second with 26,3% (losing more than ten percentage points), the Greens fell below the 10% mark (8.2%) losing more than 5 percentage points.

The many colors of coalitions

This is precisely the scenario that the Austrian political and media landscape, in a disturbing show of unity, has been whipping up against the FPÖ for weeks. Similar to the situation in the eastern German states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, a ‘firewall against the right’ has been formed, with the support of various civil society groups and (!) the Austrian Federal President. All the parties represented in parliament to date have spoken out – more or less credibly – against a future coalition with the FPÖ led by Herbert Kickl. Public broadcasting, which in Austria is financed by taxes and a compulsory levy on all households and businesses, also pulled out all the stops to disavow the FPÖ.

This mobilization ‘against the Right’ has led to the FPÖ achieving its best result in a national election.  On the other hand, the conservative ÖVP and the social democratic SPÖ actually together now have a small majority of seats. For many observers, this was the real surprise of the election evening, as was the fact that none of the numerous small parties that stood in the election managed to get any seats in the National Council (parliament).

A possible coalition between the conservative ÖVP and the Social Democrats is a warning signal for all those who are familiar with the ‘Austrian political way’. One of the country's special features is its social partnership, a particular form of corporatism that has traditionally been dominated by the SPÖ and the ÖVP in the Second Republic. This social partnership has been steering the country's fortunes in the background for decades through a system of chambers with compulsory membership for employees and employers. Should a coalition of the two come about, Austria will have to live with this well-known rotten compromise in the years to come!

One good reason supporting this thesis lies in pragmatic economic considerations. As a result of the election, the ÖVP will lose a considerable part of its state party funding; the SPÖ, which is persisting with its historically poor result of around 21% in 2019, will not be able to obtain any additional funds. Both parties are therefore dependent on posts and sinecures, which they will secure if at all possible. The fact that the majority of seats will only be razor-thin is not so significant in Austria. Since the Bundesrat (the second legislative chamber) is predominantly occupied by ÖVP and SPÖ representatives, they probably feel they are on the safe side when it comes to legislative proposals.

One possibility still exists: the ÖVP and SPÖ could bring the liberal NEOS on board for political legitimization. However, this would be a very costly solution, as the junior partner would have to be accommodated at various levels. Whether, as some observers claim, a coalition between the FPÖ and the ÖVP could ultimately prevail cannot be predicted at this time. Herbert Kickl is considered a persona non grata in numerous party committees at the federal and state level. However, he is the one who led the Freedom Party to this election victory and is therefore strengthened within his own party.

Therefore, it does not make any sense to speculate about the coalition government's potential colour schemes at this moment. It is much more interesting to look at the similarities that have contributed to the FPÖ, like the AfD in East Germany, attracting a third of the vote.

A third want a change of direction

First of all, it is noticeable that voter turnout is (once again) on the rise: in Austria, it was encouragingly high, at around 78%. Brandenburg recorded the highest voter turnout since 1990, at almost 73%. The same applies to Saxony (74.4 %). In Thuringia (73.6 %), voter turnout was only slightly higher in 1994. The narrative of political disaffection conjured up by the media and government elites does not hold water.

Secondly, it can be said that the ‘firewall against the right’ is above all a fight of internationalists against the resurgence of national currents. If we want to classify social democrats, Greens and other left-wing groups as belonging to the internationalist camp, then we can also do the same for the conservatives (ÖVP and CDU/CSU) in Austria and Germany, in view of the EU and NATO line taken by these parties. Both the FPÖ and the AfD are critical of the EU and have, for example, condemned the sanctions and Ukraine policy. In Austria, the FPÖ is also seen as a champion of the country's policy of neutrality.

Thirdly it can be stated, that - similar to the situation in East Germany - there is a strong signal in Austria from around 30% of the electorate who do not agree with the current government policy at national and also at European level. In addition to arms deliveries to Ukraine, this also concerns, for example, issues of unhindered immigration or increasing authoritarian intervention of state authorities. The great success of the AfD and the FPÖ is that they have managed to become a rallying point for all those voters who want to see a real change in politics at both national and EU level.

The coming weeks and the formation of coalitions in the aforementioned eastern German states and at the federal level in Austria will therefore be very important in determining how political sentiment in the country develops.

If these two parties are excluded from the government, a third of the electorate will get the impression that, despite democratic voting, nothing will change in the end. As a reminder: the superiority of the democratic system over all other systems is justified by the fact that the sovereign people can bring about a change of power in a bloodless way through elections. 

If the system parties (the governing parties) together with the ‘writing politicians’ in the state media find a way to prevent a change of power although they have been voted out, this will lead to lasting social unrest in Germany and Austria as well. How these riots play out in an environment of economic recession needs no further explanation.