NATO is going to Lose the War in Ukraine

Speech by Ralf Dekker to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Second Chamber of the Netherlands Parliament.

5 February 2025

NATO is going to lose the war in Ukraine to Russia. The war is actually already lost but there are still Ukrainian boys and girls left, especially now that the age for conscription is being lowered to 18. Fighting on until the last Ukrainian, it seems. Estimates vary, but it seems some 100,000 Russian soldiers have died. On the Ukrainian side it is considerably more, perhaps ten times as many. At least that is what independent observers say, such as Alexander Mercouris, Daniel Davis, Douglas MacGregor, Brian Berletic, Scott Ritter, Jacques Baud, who rely on various Ukrainian and Russian sources.

There are also still Western weapons but most of them have been shot to pieces or sold. Corruption and desertion in the Ukrainian army is huge. Zelensky says only 40 per cent of the promised billions have been received. Some $100 billion is gone. It has disappeared into various deep pockets.

Reports from independent Ukrainian media are different. Those are much more positive and optimistic. But as it now turns out, those media were 100% funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). So Ukrainian press releases and reports are completely dictated by Washington and the CIA.

NATO's secretary general has found that Russia's war production capacity is significantly larger than thought. By Mr Rutte's estimate, Russia produces 3 to 4 times as many weapons and munitions as the entire West combined.

Moreover, Russia has weapons systems against which the West has no defence at all, such as the hypersonic Oreshnik and the latest types of Iskander missiles. Western systems such as the ATACMs, Scallops and Stormshadows have not been able to do much so far.

Across the front line, Russia is advancing. Nowhere are serious counterattacks by Ukraine any more. This is a war of attrition, not a war of conquest. So the exact location of the front line does not say much. The Ukrainian army - or rather NATO - is on the verge of total collapse. According to Budanov, the head of Ukraine's intelligence service, this will take a maximum of six months. Then Ukraine will cease to exist.

And now the United States is threatening to withdraw from NATO in whole or in part - or at least from this Ukraine conflict. Then we had better quit altogether. Without the US, there can be no NATO, says even Mark Rutte.

NATO is especially good as a story factory. Fantasia-land. The house of horrors. Zelensky as superhero. We must prepare for war, they tell us, and that Ukraine is the victim of a completely unprovoked attack by Russia. They say that if given the chance, the Russians will carry on all the way through to the English Channel. Russia is said to have blown up its own Nordstream gas pipeline. Russia is aided by secretive armies of North Koreans - who were never found and who now apparently have left because of huge losses. According to Zelensky, the faces of these North Koreans were burned by the Russians when they died, to avoid recognition, and that that is why they were not found.  This is a ridiculous urban legend.

It is high time for the Netherlands to rethink its security situation fundamentally. Is there really an enemy? Against what should we defend ourselves? Against Russia? North Korea? The United States? Our neighbouring countries? Against Brussels perhaps? Do we need to spend tens of billions more on that every year? 

Chairman, it really is time to say goodbye to this NATO. It is becoming embarrassing. Especially now that it has also emerged that, as part of ‘resilience’, our government receives instructions from NATO in all sorts of policy areas that evade parliamentary scrutiny. Perhaps these include instructions on the use of emergency kits and transistor radios. And on dealing with North Koreans. Perhaps the minister can give a hint on this.

Thank you.