The End of an Era: Time's Up for Orbán

The original article was published on the Substack. You can find the original piece here.

Poland 2023 repeats in Budapest. With Orbán swept from power, the question is no longer whether European conservatism can win — but whether it can survive.

I admit that my perspectives on the Hungarian elections have been largely dominated by the trauma of the 2023 Polish elections, where the conservative PiS-led government, despite a great deal of self-confident belief in its own strength, was demoted by the sheer, intolerable pressure exerted through EU sanctions, media bashing, internal scandals, the inevitable corruption of power, and of course Western civilization’s more general trend toward cultural self-dissolution. So when I announced, already some months ago, that European conservatives should brace for a post-Orbán era, I was considered unduly pessimistic.

Alas, when Hungarian voters cast their ballots on 12 April 2026 and ended sixteen years of Viktor Orbán’s unbroken dominance while offering his opponent a landslide victory — even a two-thirds majority — this confirmation of my intuition felt like something out of Groundhog Day: an eerie replay of an all-too-well-known scenario. Indeed, in a result that polls had foreshadowed but few in Brussels (or Hungary) truly believed possible, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party achieved a decisive victory, consigning Fidesz to opposition for the first time since 2010 and depriving European conservatism of a fundamental, if highly problematic, cornerstone. And given the high voter turnout of nearly 80%, nobody can deny that the new Prime Minister has an overwhelming democratic mandate to impose a new order — and probably even change the constitution according to his will.

Thus, after the demise of the Polish PiS government in 2023, the defeat of George Simion in 2025, and the resignation of the Dutch government indirectly led by Wilders the same year, the political end of Viktor Orbán marks another step in the reversal of the populist tide that has haunted the Union since the 2015 migration crisis. For over a decade, Orbán served as the strategic anchor of a loose and often contradictory alliance of conservative anti-woke governments and parties, where sovereigntism and the rhetorical defence of the Christian West developed an unstable and sometimes chaotic compromise.

With Orbán marginalised, the populist front that once threatened to fracture the Union from within has lost its undisputed leader and most potent operator, and the remaining figures on the European right will have to adapt even more to this new reality — above all Giorgia Meloni, once viewed as Orbán’s natural ideological partner, who will have to be even more scrupulously careful in integrating her Fratelli d’Italia into the mainstream conservative family.

A dirty campaign
To understand Sunday’s events, one must first recall the dramatic background to these elections. Péter Magyar, a 45-year-old lawyer and former Fidesz insider with two decades inside Orbán’s power system — including diplomatic roles in Brussels and family ties through his ex-wife, former justice minister Judit Varga — burst onto the political stage in early 2024 after the presidential pardon scandal. Denouncing corruption and moral decay, he resigned from state posts, divorced Varga, and took over the dormant Tisza party. With insider credibility and strong appeal among younger urban voters, he quickly became Orbán’s most serious challenger — a shift that became visible in the 2024 European elections, where Tisza won 29.60% and Fidesz fell to 44.82%, marking the first serious threat to Fidesz rule in 16 years.

The campaign itself ignited in August 2025, when independent MP Ákos Hadházy released images of the Orbán family’s Hatvanpuszta estate — dubbed the “Orbán castle.” Though dismissed as a modest farm project, the revelations triggered protests and set the tone for a campaign dominated by corruption allegations and personal scandals. Even worse, by late 2025 the so-called “Orbán-gate” affair emerged. Reports alleged that Hungarian secret services targeted Tisza’s IT infrastructure and attempted infiltration, accusations reinforced by a police whistleblower and framed by Magyar as evidence of authoritarian methods.

As tensions escalated, January 2026 brought the official election date — 12 April — along with the first independent polls showing Tisza ahead. Simultaneously, amid an ongoing rule-of-law dispute, the EU delayed decisions on billions in funds, officially to avoid influencing the vote but widely interpreted by Orbán as political pressure, recalling earlier disputes seen in Poland and Romania. The spiral of scandals continued when February brought a major “sex-and-drugs” scandal after Magyar admitted to a secretly recorded encounter where drugs were present, while denying personal use and accusing the government of blackmail. Rather than weakening him, the affair energised supporters and highlighted the increasingly ruthless tone of the campaign.

Soon after, the crisis took on an international dimension. On 5 March, Hungary’s Counter-Terrorism Centre intercepted an armoured convoy transporting cash and gold from Vienna to Kyiv, opening a money-laundering investigation and provoking sharp reactions from Ukraine. As if tensions were not already high, mid-March saw the release of the documentary The Price of a Vote, alleging systematic vote-buying and intimidation in rural areas, sparking large opposition rallies. At the same time, investigative journalist Szabolcs Panyi published reports alleging Russian-linked election interference, prompting government accusations of espionage and international criticism over press intimidation.

The chain of events intensified further in early April, when explosives were reportedly discovered near the TurkStream gas pipeline. Orbán deployed troops and warned of sabotage, while opposition figures suggested a possible false-flag operation designed to mobilise fear before the vote. Throughout the final weeks, the atmosphere grew increasingly hostile. Orbán’s campaign used AI-generated messaging warning that an EU- and Ukraine-aligned government would drag Hungary into war, while rival camps exchanged accusations of foreign interference. Media battles escalated further with widely circulated but unverifiable claims about Judit Varga’s alleged memoir 16 Years with a Monster, deepening the climate of distrust, hoaxes, and false-flag operations.

This relentless escalation culminated in a symbolic final episode. On 7 April, US Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest and met Orbán — a move widely interpreted as strong support from the Trump administration for Fidesz days before the vote and condemned by Magyar as foreign interference, while Orbán levelled similar accusations regarding what he described as obvious EU support for his rival. Hence, by the time Hungarians went to the polls on Sunday, the campaign had become one of the most polarised and geopolitically charged in modern Hungarian history — marked by corruption claims, espionage accusations, media warfare, security scares, and repeated allegations of foreign involvement, all unfolding under a government that had ruled for 16 years.

Orbán’s Defeat and the Future of Hungary
From a conservative standpoint, the demise of Orbán represents both a sobering moment and a potential opportunity for renewal. Orbán had positioned himself, often with substantial justification, as Europe’s steadfast champion of borders, family policy, demographic continuity, and a continent conscious of its Christian roots against the secularising, centralising, LGBTQ-obsessed, and migration-friendly tendencies emanating from Brussels. His defeat, however, also exposed the limits of a system that, despite genuine achievements, had become entangled in patronage, corruption allegations, and a certain routine of power that eroded public trust and moral credibility. At the same time, the necessities of political survival had moved Orbán, step by step, from his initial defence of a conservative and Christian view of European cooperation to an increasingly opportunistic quest for extra-European support, be it from Russia, the US, China, or even Turkey — a quest often deemed overly opportunistic, alienating many of his European supporters and probably also voters. If we add to this the typical inability of old-school conservative parties like Fidesz to appeal to younger voters more interested in identitarian than economic issues, the enormous pressure exerted by the European Union, and, of course, the general left-liberal “Zeitgeist” conveyed by mass media and social networks, it is not overly difficult to explain Orbán’s defeat, even though its sheer overwhelming extent remains staggering and shows how quickly an entire political empire can come crashing down in a couple of hours.

Magyar now inherits the difficult task of steering Hungary. The next four years will test whether a post-Orbán Hungary can carve out a place within the European Union structures that still honours its true civilisational foundations, or whether the shift merely accelerates a more general drift toward technocratic uniformity and incremental loss of national distinctiveness — or, put differently, whether Magyar will imitate Meloni or Tusk.

In Hungary itself, the next months will doubtless bring massive institutional reorientation and economic normalisation. Tisza’s platform repeatedly emphasised unlocking approximately €18 billion in frozen EU funds by restoring the “rule of law”. There is nothing wrong with dismantling patronage networks that undermine the moral order and economic efficiency of the state; however, the Polish experience shows that, in practice, “restoring” the rule of law often means bringing back an institutional machinery firmly aligned with left-liberal ideology and personnel structures supported by the EU: if Orbán’s patronage system disappears, it will probably only be to the benefit of another, hardly less “problematic,” deep-state system; a system which, thanks to Magyar’s new “supermajority”, will be able to rewrite the constitution until it appears tailor-made.

Hence, during the next weeks, we may expect personnel restructuring on a large scale in all state-owned or state-influenced organisations, from media and think tanks through the bureaucracy and universities to the corporate world. If Magyar is as efficient as Tusk was some years ago, the lists are probably already well prepared, and the coming weeks may see an enormous backlash against everything Orbán built during the last 16 years — including, of course, himself, as it is by no means excluded that Hungary will soon be flooded with numerous trials for corruption, breach of the constitution, and even high treason. Some key institutions such as MCC, a cornerstone of Fidesz’s education policy, were expressly designed to withstand such pressure thanks to independent financing and will probably survive even under Tisza rule; however, it remains to be seen whether such institutions will truly wish to play last-stand opposition once Viktor Orbán is gone, or whether they will instead prudently align with the new power to ensure their survival.

Concerning the economy, it has often been argued that short-term stimulus from released EU funds, combined with Tisza’s pledges to maintain and expand family benefits and tax relief for minimum-wage earners, could yield modest GDP growth of 2.5–3.5% annually by 2028–2030, assuming efficient absorption and no major external shocks. Yet given the broader geopolitical situation, particularly developments involving Iran, it is doubtful whether Hungary, even under Tisza rule, will escape economic stagnation — especially as the gradual reduction of energy dependence on Russia (target 2035) and increased investment in healthcare and education will be costly, as might be the economic shock of entering the eurozone by 2030 (another promise by Magyar). This probable failure to ensure sustained economic growth will likely create, particularly in view of generational shifts, significant disappointment and ultimately risk pushing urban and younger voters, who drove Tisza’s rise, into the arms of identitarian narratives, as has occurred in many other countries. By that point, however, it may be too late for a shift back to conservatism, as the new elites will already be firmly entrenched, the constitution amended as imposed by Brussels and Fidesz reduced to a shadow of its former strength.

Demographically, the pro-natalist policies pioneered under Orbán — lifetime tax exemptions for mothers of multiple children, housing subsidies, and family allowances — may appear largely secure under Tisza’s centre-right commitments, which explicitly pledge continuity and expansion in support for families and the elderly. However, from a long-term perspective, the large-scale inefficiency of some of these measures, even under Orbán, may provide sufficient grounds to scale them back step by step, potentially weakening the model of the classical family so carefully defended by Fidesz and obliging more mothers to re-enter the labour market.

Similarly, it remains doubtful whether migration policy will truly show the continuity promised by Magyar, such as maintaining the border fence, refusing mandatory relocation quotas, and opposing the EU “Migration Pact”. Most probably, as was the case in Poland, a certain form of reassuring anti-migration rhetoric will continue to be cultivated and tacitly tolerated by the European Union as long as Orbán’s personnel networks and Fidesz’s economic base are systematically dismantled. Only once the new system is firmly in power may we see a more explicit shift toward multiculturalism and, of course, other “intersectional” issues such as expanded LGBTQ minority protections and gender-related policies.

European perspectives
It will be in foreign policy that the transformation of Hungary will be most notable, with a clear shift toward greater alignment with EU mainstream positions. Magyar has committed to ending veto politics, rebuilding trust with allies, and toning down relations with Moscow, and though he seems to refuse arms deliveries to Ukraine and an accelerated Ukrainian EU accession, it is to be expected that sooner or later, given the right incentives, he will at least tacitly tolerate EU majority decisions to that effect. Hence, Budapest is expected to align more closely on sanctions packages, support NATO spending targets while assuming a critical standpoint in front of the Trump administration, reduce Russian energy leverage over time, and tone down the protection of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine, Slovakia, and Romania, which often brought Hungary into conflict with its neighbours.

For the European political right, the loss of Budapest as a major — even the only — hub of conservatism on the continent will be a very troublesome development, as without Hungarian support many media, educational, or activist associations will lose access to funding and coordination, leaving numerous individuals stranded and making conservative resistance to the woke mainstream harder than ever. But at the same time, such a loss could also be a healthy experience, as the near-monopolistic role played by Hungary in recent years also contained certain dangers: in the absence of any European conservative counterbalance, Hungarian positions — and thus the specific interests of a small Central European country — increasingly influenced consensus-building procedures within the entire European right. This situation was, of course, without real alternatives at the time, but it has not always had the best influence on the interpretation of complex and controversial notions such as European patriotism, Western identity, Christian values, subsidiarity, or the future of the nation-state.

From a conservative and at the same time patriotic, pro-European (though not necessarily pro-EU) viewpoint, the prospect of a Hungary marked by a more constructive attitude toward European integration and less inclined to align on Russia, China, Turkey or Trump’s US offers a certain quantum of solace, as Orbán’s confrontational style — however principled in defending sovereignty and Christian values — had more often than not reinforced a certain form of nationalism at odds with the civilisational patriotism so urgently needed for the survival of our European community under threat from internal dissolution and numerous external menaces. Yet prudence demands caution: over-alignment risks subordinating legitimate national and civilisational interests to a Brussels consensus largely dominated by left-liberalism, even wokism.

This risk is even greater because Orbán’s departure removes the European Union’s most effective and consistent internal dissenter, and Brussels will likely go a long way to benefit from the current window of opportunity and ensure that no similar opposition will rise again in Hungary. The Union that emerges from this situation risks becoming less contested internally but more uniform in its regulatory, cultural, and ideological outlook, and this could become the ideal moment to push through further federalisation of the EU in crucial domains such as mass surveillance, censorship, fiscal policy, abortion, euthanasia, migration policy, and LGBTQ issues — eroding the principles of subsidiarity and undermining the last remnants of Christian civilisation which Orbán had fought — however imperfectly — to preserve.

Conclusion
Hungary’s political transition reaches beyond the fate of one government. What is at stake is the broader trajectory of Europe itself. Orbán’s fall marks the closing of a chapter in which Hungary served — sometimes controversially — as the continent’s most visible laboratory of conservative resistance to secularisation, centralisation, multiculturalism, the “culture of death,” and demographic decline. His defeat exposes the limits of long-entrenched power, particularly when patronage, fatigue, external pressure, moral erosion, and a hostile “Zeitgeist” combine to weaken public trust. Yet it also raises a more immediate and disquieting question: what becomes of Europe when its most persistent internal dissenter nation chooses, or is compelled, to align with the prevailing consensus? Without the friction created by sovereign-minded states, the European Union risks accelerating its own self-radicalisation along ideological lines already visible in debates on migration, gender, censorship, and subsidiarity — the absence of resistance generating not moderation, but inviting excess.
 

At the same time, Hungary’s transformation highlights another paradox: the ideological geography of Europe itself may be shifting. For decades, Central and Eastern Europe represented the conservative conscience of the continent, rooted in memory of communist totalitarianism, attachment to faith, and cultural patriotism. Yet increasing prosperity, generational change, and cultural exposure to “progressive” media networks are steadily reshaping these societies. If Hungary and its neighbours move closer to Brussels consensus, while Western Europe continues to grapple with identity crises, migration pressures, and social fragmentation, we may ultimately witness an unexpected reversal: a Central and Eastern Europe drifting toward left-liberal “normalisation,” while parts of Western Europe rediscover identitarian and conservative reflexes in response to decline — an inversion that would profoundly alter the strategic landscape of European conservatism.

With Hungary temporarily lost to conservatism, the European continent will thus face a major challenge that may prove decisive for its future: how to avoid falling prey to a Euro-federalist project wielded by left-liberal elites as a weapon in the struggle against political conservatism, without sacrificing the urgent need for the continent’s unity to the temptations of sovereigntism and fragmentation.